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The polls are maddening and confusing. TIPP has our President up by two points. Fox News has Kerry up 2, Marist has Kerry up one. Battleground and CBS (!) / New York times have Bush up 3. According to the poll-averaging website, www.realclearpolitics.com, Bush is up 1.7, trying to stem a trend toward Kerry. The polls do not seem to bother our President, who seems completely calm, not desperate at all. The USA Gallup poll shows a tie.
The internal polls by Bush/Cheney and Kerry/Edwards both, according to sources, show our President up between 4 and 7 points and trending up. The candidatesí plans seem to support the internal poll numbers, with Kerry attacking Bush hard and in near desperation, and Bush sending the V.P. to Hawaii to lock in a significant takeaway from the left-wingers. Bush leads in New Mexico, Hawaii, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio and Florida. He is in striking distance in Minnesota and Pennsylvania. The Pennsylvania polls are wildly variant. The likely electoral college count is Bush 351, Kerry 224, if the internal polls are accurate. UPDATED at 16:30CST ON 11-1-2004: New Jersey is in play and is being carpet bombed by Democrats.
Osama Bin Laden endorsed Kerry in a video tape, sounding suspiciously like the Democrat candidate. Yet there was movement towards Kerry? I am stumped about these polls in the press. They seem to keep the election near an absolute tie, and I wonder about their integrity. I see the questions are neutral, but the sampling may not be so neutral. The internal polls used by the candidates shoot as straight as possible, since the candidate and his staff use them to plan their efforts.
Right now, Senator Kerry is out trying to shore up his base, hurling nastier and nastier allegations at our President, such as vote suppression. His attorneys are already in court to keep Ohio GOP observers from challenging ballots there, even though it is apparent that his party has registered tens of thousands of ineligible people. This includes over 20,000 registered in both Florida and Ohio, and at least one county where registered voters substantially outnumber eligible voters!
On the other hand, President Bush is relaxed and confident as he tries to pick up extra states, with no sign of worry in him. He is relaxed, and not in high attack mode. He looks and acts as a man who knows he is going to win. Kerry is desperate, even though the "polls" show the vote "trending" his way. I am stunned by this turn of developments. I personall believe that the press is trying to drum up a Kerry vote, or perhaps the pollsters with which they align.
To this end, I note with some amazement that Fox News released a Kerry +3 poll and CBS/New York Times released a Bush +3 poll. I am still, however, thinking that they are showing Kerry trending up to deflate our Presidentís base and energize Kerryís. The press, with few exceptions, is rabidly pro-Kerry, and is in fact, as Rush Limbaugh has rightly noted, the "media wing of the Democratic Party.
Something to note about the USA/Gallup tie poll. They took the undecideds and allocated them between Bush and Kerry, assuming that 90% of these people would break for Kerry! In the NYT poll, however, a majority of the undecided voters are leaning toward our President. So NYT did not allocate the undecideds. Without giving Senator Kerry 9 out of every 10 undecideds, with no evidence to indicate that this allocation was warranted, our President would lead this poll by three whole points.
I also, however, think that the people are smarter than these hijinks. I ask you to do whatever you need to in order to VOTE. It does not matter where you live, just Vote, Vote, Vote! The day is tomorrow. Make your vote count by casting it, and help preserve the Republic!