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Poll Averages War: Obama Camp Desperation in Action!

by John F. Tamburo, Editor in Chief, Publisher
Originally Posted: 10/22/2012 2:43:13 PM

There is a massive fight underway in the world of pollsters. On one side, you have the honest pollsters, Rasmussen and Gallup, who resist the pressure to shape their polls one way or the other. As of October 22, averaging Gallup (Romney 51-45) and Rasmussen (Romney 49-47) comes up with Romney 50-46, +4, at or above the average margin of error of 2.5 and past the magical 50% mark. Other polls, such as Politico/GWU and Monmouth/SurveyUSA, also show Mr. Romney leading in the lower single digits.

On the other side, we have IBD/TIPP. That is TIPP polls have been hired by Investor’s Business Daily to poll for that publication. This tracking poll consistently uses a D+7 preference model, and arrives at Obama +6 as of October 22. Clearly, D+7 is unrealistic in this election year, and eclipses the turnout model of 2008, a Democrat wave year. Not only is 2012 not a Democrat wave year, it is likely based on patterns (2002, 2004: Strong R, 2006-2008: Wave D; 2010 Wave R) that 2012 will be a strong GOP year, if not a continuation of the 2010 wave.

TIPP is clearly, especially as four polls show that the trend is toward Romney and hot for Romney, juiced. The amount of juicing appears to be a doubling of the Democrat turnout assumption. Why would TIPP, which laughingly bills itself as “the world’s most accurate pollster” (that title actually belongs to Rasmussen), so brazenly juice up its poll? The answer is because of its use elsewhere.

TIPP is used by both CNN’s Poll of Polls and the RealClearPolitics average of polls. Right now, RCP averages the latest eight polls. TIPP’s Obama +6 (on a D+7) assumption so stilts the RCP average that governor Romney’s impressive lead is shaved down to less than a point. If one were to refactor TIPP’s numbers to match the Rasmussen party identification poll, TIPP’s results would shift 180 degrees to a Romney +4, in line with the other polls at the top of the RCP average.

Many are now writing of the Obama campaign’s desperate efforts to keep the election from slipping away. Erick Erickson speculates about a Gloria-Allred-led phony Romney bimbo eruption and speaks of the desperate moves made to keep the President and his henchmen in power. Carl Cannon writes of the knock-down drag-out fight for Colorado . Reuters writes of President Obama’s last-ditch blitz through the swing states . This tells us that the TIPP poll is juiced, and that the Obama camp knows it. I personally believe that the Obama camp wants to depress GOP turnout. Failing that, it wants to spur its own turnout by making the race appear within reach.

After all, if Governor Romney is really ahead by 4-6 points with 15 days to go, there is little that can be done to reverse that momentum. Undecided voters most often break for the challenger in an incumbent election; there is no reason to suspect otherwise. Moreover, there is no reason to suspect that there is any hidden dirt on Romney that the Obama campaign hasn’t brought out. It’s very late in the race and Governor Romney has been gaining in the polls for three weeks and leading for two. Mr. Axelrod would have fired his shot by now in order to keep Governor Romney from taking the lead. The fact that Romney appears to be leading in early voting would be another factor militating in favor of an earlier release of anti-Romney dirt.

Therefore, any “October surprise” is certainly a desperate contrivance to attempt to muddy the waters with bovine dung. I also believe that the people will see such a low-handed tactic for what it is and ignore it.

It is heartening that the Obama campaign has been unable to do anything worse than to throw a juiced tracking poll at Governor Romney. TIPP is the Obama campaign’s disinformation agent into the CNN and RCP averages. Conservativity recommends that both CNN and RCP disqualify the TIPP tracking poll from its averages so that the country can see an honest picture of the sentiment of the people.