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Tuesday, April 25, 2017

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Ridiculous Poll-Juicing Tries to Conceal Romney Victory


The only way to assume that this election is tied or headed into the direction of a win for President Obama is to completely disregard reality. All the polls are close, and they all assume that Democrat turnout will be higher than GOP turnout. This is nonsensical. Rasmussenís final party identification poll shows GOP at 39.1%, Democrat 33.3%, Independent 27.5% -- that is R5.8%. Gallup, similarly shows R+1 in general party affiliation, and a push to choose yields R+3. Yet, none of the polls assume R plus anything.

One egregious outlier is the last CNN / Opinion Research tracking poll. This poll shows a D+11 electorate. This is four points higher than the D+7 margin in the Obama wave 2008 election. Does any sane person who has analyzed the last 20 yearsí elections believe that Mr. Obama will add over 50% to his partyís turnout margins? What does it say that this poll presumes a D+11 electorate? Moreover, how does a D+11 poll yield a 49-49 tie? Such an outlier, as horrendously juiced as it is, should yield a stout and insurmountable lead.

One quick digressionÖ Several people bought into the CNN / Opinion Research line that it merely took the responses from its random calls and reported it. This is nonsensical, and does not reflect the poll methodologies of the last 20 years.

It is incredibly easy to juice a poll by choosing the area codes and exchanges into which the pollster dials. In Illinois for example, a pollster dialing into 773-785, a predominantly African-American exchange, would naturally expect a strong skew toward President Obama. By contrast, the same pollster dialing into 815-806 would experience a strong skew toward Governor Romney. The proper way to measure into an area is to take sample sizes by zip code that proportionately match the number of actual voters from that zip code, averaged from the last three elections.

The CNN poll was juiced in it selection algorithm in order to generate the appearance of an Obama blowout, and yet it came up with a tie. The foregoing conclusion comports is a fair assessment of the facts as we know them.

SoÖ What happens if we de-juice the CNN poll to the Rasmussen affiliation poll?

Romney Wins with 56.599% to Obamaís 41.535%

Such a result would obviously represent a monumental blowout, the biggest victory for any President since Nixon spanked McGovern in 1972. So letís not use that factor. Letís use Rasmussenís party affiliation from his latest tracking poll, assuming that the actual affiliation poll is an outlier. Those affiliation numbers are GOP 37, Dem 39, Ind. 24. Plugging those numbers into the CNN poll results in:  

Romney Wins with 52.74% to Obamaís 45.52%

This comports with the Battleground Poll predictions we saw last week. Assuming that the electorate is less than D+8, Governor Romney will have a very, very good night tonight.

Juiced polls are designed to keep up enthusiasm in the Democrat base, and to depress GOP turnout. Dirty tricks are coming. So are illegal tactics. However, part of the side benefit of a haughty campaign is the reduced need to play evil tricks to win. Hence, I am hearing of far fewer tricks than 2004, the last election where the contest was hot.

In our efforts to recapture the Republic for the benefit of the people and our freedom, it appears that we are winning the fight. Thank God, He may have just helped us keep the Republic.

Iíve voted; I live in the Peopleís Republic of Illinois, where political corruption makes Greece look like a monastery; my job is done. If you have not yet voted, get your keester to a polling place NOW!

Ignore juiced polls. Your vote is the best way to love America!